![]() Multiple studies have been done, and their drop rates line up.Ĭrucially, the Chinese government also requires loot box odds to be disclosed. Watching Youtubers react to case openings is a phenomenon with a hidden benefit - some of them have been chronicling every opening so we have some stats to work with. So how much value does a CS:GO weapon case return in comparison to slot machines around the world? Lifting the Veil on Drop Rates ![]() This is everything that drives most of Valve’s business now.” and another 1% is the rest altogether, such as Rust, etc. “The global annual turnover of weapon skins is around $3-4 billion,” he told us. Speaking to Vlad Panchenko, founder of third-party trading sites skins.cash and DMarket, it’s clear that CS:GO is also the most authoritative example. Thanks to this system, we can talk about a digital item’s “value,” as decided by the market. After paying to open a weapon case, CS:GO players either mothball the mountains of worthless flotsam they receive for another spin, or trade their digital items for dollar amounts on the marketplace. To find out, we turn to the weapon skin marketplace in Counter-Strike: Global Offensive. That’s known as the Return to Player (RTP) amount. A slot machine in Sydney, for a given time period, must pay out 87% of the money wagered. ![]() ![]() Aside from the obvious age restriction, the gambling machines mimicked by loot boxes are subject to minimum payouts. The walls of regulation are starting to close in on these extralegal casinos of cosmetics. An unknowable value exchange, often presented with the aesthetics of a gambling machine - pay the money, pull the lever, and a random number generator decides which outfit your Tracer will be wearing. We speak, of course, of loot boxes - these in-game transactions are like purchases, with only a chance to get what you want. But when games started offering random rewards for spending money instead of time, the industry changed forever. Ever since tabletop die rolls, RPGs have conditioned us to accept randomisation in everything from character attributes, to casting spells, to verbal persuasion, and even our rewarded loot. ![]()
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